Al Taawon 0-2 Al Wehda Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taawon host Al Wehda Club at Al Taawoun Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Al Taawon have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al Taawon are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Taawon, 1 for Al Wehda Club and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Wehda Club winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 46% versus Al Wehda Club 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 38% | Al Wehda Club 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.35 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.932 / defence 0.938 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.807 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.313. Data: 61 Al Taawon games / 61 Al Wehda Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 44% | Draw 29% | Al Wehda Club 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Al Wehda Club 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al Wehda Club 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al Taawoun Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 44% | Draw 29% | Al Wehda Club 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Taawon 1.35 / Al Wehda Club 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.932 / def 0.938 | Al Wehda Club attack 0.807 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Al Wehda Club xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club?
Al Taawon 0 - 2 Al Wehda Club.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 44% chance of winning, Al Wehda Club a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 2 | Al Wehda Club 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al Wehda Club's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wehda Club's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.49
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.34
0.99
Al Wehda Club xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.99 for Al Wehda Club, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taawon come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 19D 16L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wehda Club sit at 0.97 PPG from 61 outings (16W 11D 34L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Taawon's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wehda Club have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (7W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al Wehda Club are on 1.26 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Wehda Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 26W 19D 16L in their last 61 games (1.59 PPG), while Al Wehda Club have gone 16W 11D 34L in their last 61 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Wehda Club away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.67 PPG; Al Wehda Club away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Wehda Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al Wehda Club in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Wehda Club go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when Al Taawon won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al Wehda Club specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
2
Draws
2
Al Wehda Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al Wehda Club have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Al Taawon 0-2 Al Wehda Club.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 50%, Al Wehda Club 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al Taawon) and 50% (Al Wehda Club).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Wehda Club in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Wehda Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Wehda Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 47% of Al Wehda Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Wehda Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al Taawon's recent games and 50% of Al Wehda Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Wehda Club tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Wehda Club in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Taawon 0-2 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.35 xG and Al Wehda Club 0.99 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Al Wehda Club outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 44% | Draw 29% | Al Wehda Club 27%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 38%, Al Wehda Club 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Al Wehda Club winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.