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Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al-Raed 4-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.46 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Al-Raed attack 1.11 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 38%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 37%, Al-Raed 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Raed's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights