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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 38%, yet in-form Al Taawon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Taawon vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Raed to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 24 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al Taawon — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 2W 4D 4L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Al Taawon carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Al Taawon have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Al-Raed have managed just 1 wins.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Al Taawon winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Taawon and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 45% versus Al-Raed 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 37% | Al-Raed 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.46 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.835 / defence 0.997 | Al-Raed attack 1.115 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.353. Data: 62 Al Taawon games / 62 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Raed 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Taawon (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al-Raed 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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