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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al Okhdood 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al Okhdood 1-0 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.24 xG and Al Okhdood 0.84 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al Okhdood landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.17 / defence 0.88 against Al Okhdood attack 0.66 / defence 1.24, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 68% | Draw 20% | Al Okhdood 12%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 39%, Al Okhdood 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights