Al Taawon 1-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al Okhdood travel to Al Taawon Arena to take on Al Taawon. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 January 2026, 13:50 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Taawon have posted 6W 2D 2L at Al Taawon Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Al Taawon have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al Taawon have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Al Okhdood have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 3–2 with Al Taawon winning.
The historical record gives Al Taawon a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 45% versus Al Okhdood 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 39% | Al Okhdood 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.24 xG and Al Okhdood 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.172 / defence 0.882 | Al Okhdood attack 0.655 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.453. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Al Taawon games / 51 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 68% | Draw 20% | Al Okhdood 12%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Al Okhdood 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 50% | Al Okhdood 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 68% | Draw 20% | Al Okhdood 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Taawon 2.24 / Al Okhdood 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.172 / def 0.882 | Al Okhdood attack 0.655 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Al Okhdood xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 13:50 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Al Taawon 1 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 68% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taawon 4W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Okhdood in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taawon's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
68%
1.46
20%
5.06
12%
8.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.08
0.84
Al Okhdood xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
8.49
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
1%
79.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.84 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 23W 11D 17L from 51 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 30L across 51 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 12W 7D 6L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Okhdood's away record stands at 6W 4D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.92 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 23W 11D 17L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 11W 10D 30L in their last 51 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.72 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
1
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Al Taawon 1-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Okhdood?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 48%, Al Okhdood 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Taawon) and 40% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 40% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Taawon's recent games and 40% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al Okhdood 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Okhdood 1-0 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.24 xG and Al Okhdood 0.84 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al Okhdood landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.17 / defence 0.88 against Al Okhdood attack 0.66 / defence 1.24, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 68% | Draw 20% | Al Okhdood 12%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 39%, Al Okhdood 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.