🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al Taawon and Al-Nassr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Al Taawon and Al-Nassr drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.31 xG and Al-Nassr 1.66 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Al-Nassr attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 46%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 40%, Al-Nassr 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights