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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon and Al Khaleej Saihat finished level at 1-1 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.15 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.37 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.18 / defence 1.33, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 55% | Draw 21% | Al Khaleej Saihat 24%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 38%, Al Khaleej Saihat 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights