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Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Taawon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taawon 0-2 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.64 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.54 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 40% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 44%, Al-Ittihad FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights