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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Taawon 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taawon 1-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.07 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.80 / defence 0.84 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 39%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 36%, Al-Ittihad FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.60 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights