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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Al Taawon and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.26 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.24 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.63 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 20% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 39%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.63 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights