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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Taawon and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Al Taawon and Al-Hazm drew 2-2 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.86 xG and Al-Hazm 0.89 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hazm outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.15 / defence 0.79 against Al-Hazm attack 0.77 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 60% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 17%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 53%, Al-Hazm 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights