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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Hazm.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Hazm to Al Taawon Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 January 2026 at 15:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al Taawon Arena, Al Taawon have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.

Al-Hazm — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Hazm's away record: 3W 3D 2L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Al Taawon are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al Taawon: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Hazm, with 1 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 4–0 with Al Taawon winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Taawon and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Al Taawon trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Al-Hazm trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 53% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 53% | Al-Hazm 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.86 xG and Al-Hazm 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.150 / defence 0.789 | Al-Hazm attack 0.765 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.475. Al Taawon's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Al Taawon games / 15 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 60% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hazm 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al-Hazm 62% BTTS from recent games.

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