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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al Taawon 2-3 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.00 xG and Al-Fayha 0.88 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.04 / defence 0.86 against Al-Fayha attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 63% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 15%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fayha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 38%, Al-Fayha 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Al-Fayha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights