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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Taawon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taawon 2-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.82 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 0.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.97 / defence 0.70 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.90 / defence 0.71, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 37% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Ahli Jeddah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 37%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Taawon's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.67 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights