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Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al Shabab 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Shabab 2-3 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.28 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.40 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 39%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 57%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.55 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights