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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 31 December 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Shabab at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Al-Shabab Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Shabab trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 64% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 57% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.28 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.923 / defence 1.014 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.962 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.430. Data: 44 Al Shabab games / 44 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 60% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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