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Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Shabab 2-3 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.36 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.21 / defence 0.97 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.72, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 36%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al-Qadisiyah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 63%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights