Al Shabab vs Al Kholood Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Shabab face Al Kholood.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Shabab welcome Al Kholood to Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Shabab stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Kholood — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Kholood away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Shabab 1.40 PPG, Al Kholood 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al Shabab's games and 60% of Al Kholood's (from Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al Kholood's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al Shabab, 3 for Al Kholood and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Sep 2026, ended Al Shabab 1–2 Al Kholood — a Al Kholood win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Kholood trading profile (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 62% versus Al Kholood 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 49% | Al Kholood 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.74 xG and Al Kholood 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.314 / defence 1.009 | Al Kholood attack 1.039 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.477. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack rating of 1.314 — their 2.74 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al Kholood's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Shabab's projected output up. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 45 games and Al Kholood's last 45.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 62% | Draw 19% | Al Kholood 19%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.62 | Draw 5.14 | Al Kholood 5.29. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 4.29. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.29 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (2.74 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.29 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al Kholood's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Kholood 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 62% | Draw 19% | Al Kholood 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 75% (No 25%) | xG Al Shabab 2.74 / Al Kholood 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.314 / def 1.009 | Al Kholood attack 1.039 / def 1.385 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.74
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al Kholood xG
75%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Kholood FAQs
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Kholood is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 18 March 2027 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Kholood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 62% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Kholood will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Shabab vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.74. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Shabab's last 45 games and Al Kholood's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.0%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.3%), 1-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.14
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.74
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
4.29
1.55
Al Kholood xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.97
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
6%
15.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
1%
82.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Kholood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.55 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 4.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Kholood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 16D 18L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.00 PPG from 45 outings (12W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.09 PPG, Al Kholood on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Shabab's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 23 away games (6W 5D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.24 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
Al Shabab (Home) vs Al Kholood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Kholood Form FAQs
What form are Al Shabab and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 11W 16D 18L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 24L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.35 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 9 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al Kholood have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
0
Draws
3
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Kholood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Kholood?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Shabab have won 2, Al Kholood have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Kholood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 September 2026: Al Kholood 2-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 70%, Al Kholood 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al Shabab and 65% for Al Kholood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al Kholood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Shabab and Al Kholood matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Shabab's games and 56% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Shabab and Al Kholood matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al Shabab's matches and 65% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al Shabab and Al Kholood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 70% of Al Kholood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.