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Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al Shabab 1-2 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.76 xG and Al Kholood 1.25 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Al Kholood attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 49% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 27%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Al Kholood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 65%, Al Kholood 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Kholood's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights