🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Al Shabab welcome Al Kholood to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 25 September 2025 at 16:25 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.

Al Kholood — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al Kholood away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Shabab 1.50 PPG, Al Kholood 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 0 for Al Kholood and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Al Shabab winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al Shabab trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Al Kholood trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 62% and Al Kholood 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 65% | Al Kholood 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.76 xG and Al Kholood 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.003 / defence 1.099 | Al Kholood attack 0.837 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.354. Data: 37 Al Shabab games / 37 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 49% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Al Kholood 3.70. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Al Kholood 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights