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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Shabab defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Shabab beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.51 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.50 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.07 / defence 1.48 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.93, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 22% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Al Shabab win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al-Ittihad FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights