Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Shabab face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's home record at Al-Shabab Club Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Al-Ettifaq arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Al-Ettifaq hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Al-Ettifaq have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 60% versus Al-Ettifaq 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 45% | Al-Ettifaq 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.20 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.070 / defence 1.032 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.030 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Data: 42 Al Shabab games / 43 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 27% | Draw 33% | Al-Ettifaq 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ettifaq 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 60% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 27% | Draw 33% | Al-Ettifaq 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Shabab 1.20 / Al-Ettifaq 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.070 / def 1.032 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.030 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al-Ettifaq xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 27% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (10 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 5 | Al-Ettifaq 4W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.03x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
27%
3.67
33%
3.03
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.68
1.48
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
6%
16.06
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.48 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab come into this having played 42 games, going 9W 15D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.48 PPG from 42 outings (17W 11D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Shabab's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.57 points per game from 21 outings (10W 3D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.48 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 9W 15D 18L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
5
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 67%, Al-Ettifaq 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al Shabab) and 52% (Al-Ettifaq).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Shabab's games and 48% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al Shabab's recent games and 52% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.