Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Khaleej Saihat versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 2W 1D 7L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.90 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat in recent Pro League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Ittihad FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Al Khaleej Saihat's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 63% and Al-Ittihad FC 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 63% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.93 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.872 / defence 1.309 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.920 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 38 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 19% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 53%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.89. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 19% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.93 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.872 / def 1.309 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.920 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Al-Ittihad FC xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 3 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (0.92x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
19%
5.37
28%
3.57
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.63
1.69
Al-Ittihad FC xG
5.37
19%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
3%
29.21
21%
4.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.69 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 10D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.66 PPG from 38 outings (18W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 6W 3D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.11 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
3
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 47%, Al-Ittihad FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 53% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 68% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 53% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.