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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.48 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.63 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 41%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 61%, Al-Ettifaq 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.61 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights