Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's home record at Al-Shabab Club Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Shabab are significantly better at Al-Shabab Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Al-Ettifaq hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 1–3 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Ettifaq have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 63% and Al-Ettifaq 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 61% | Al-Ettifaq 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.48 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 0.864 / defence 1.058 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.997 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.547. Data: 41 Al Shabab games / 41 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ettifaq 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Al-Ettifaq 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Shabab 1.48 / Al-Ettifaq 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 0.864 / def 1.058 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.997 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Al-Ettifaq xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 14:45 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Shabab 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (8 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 3 | Al-Ettifaq 4W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 0.86x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.00x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
34%
2.92
25%
3.98
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.11
1.63
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.92
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.63 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab come into this having played 41 games, going 19W 9D 13L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.41 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Shabab's home form reads 11W 3D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.65 points per game from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.29 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 19W 9D 13L in their last 41 games (1.61 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.80 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
5
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Al Shabab, 75% for Al-Ettifaq — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al Shabab and 60% for Al-Ettifaq. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Shabab's games and 75% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al Shabab's matches and 60% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.48 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.63 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 34% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 41%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 61%, Al-Ettifaq 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.61 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.