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Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Al Shabab.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Shabab 2-5 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 0.69 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 1.16 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.87 / defence 0.53, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 22% | Draw 32% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 54%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Shabab's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights