Al Riyadh 0-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Riyadh vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Damac at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Riyadh stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Damac — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Damac have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Riyadh at 1.10 PPG versus Damac's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al Riyadh have won 1, Damac 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Riyadh trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Damac trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 54% versus Damac 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 52% | Damac 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.20 xG and Damac 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.760 / defence 0.825 | Damac attack 0.732 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.323. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Al Riyadh games / 59 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 45% | Draw 30% | Damac 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Damac 4.00. Al Riyadh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 30% | Damac 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 45% | Draw 30% | Damac 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Al Riyadh 1.20 / Damac 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.760 / def 0.825 | Damac attack 0.732 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Damac xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Damac kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Damac kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Al Riyadh 0 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Damac part of?
Al Riyadh vs Damac is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 45% chance of winning, Damac a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al Riyadh and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Damac?
Record (3 meetings): Al Riyadh 1W | Draws 2 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Damac in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Damac (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.33
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.00
0.80
Damac xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 0.80 for Damac, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 17W 17D 25L from 59 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 25L across 59 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Riyadh on 1.15 PPG, Damac on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 9W 10D 10L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 6W 7D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Riyadh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.25 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Damac have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Damac away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.28 PPG; Damac away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Riyadh and Damac runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2026, when Damac won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Damac specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Riyadh
4
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 1, Damac have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2026, when Damac 3-0 Al Riyadh.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 45%, Damac 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al Riyadh) and 48% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 34% of games; Damac in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 55% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 48% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Damac tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Damac in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Riyadh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Al Riyadh and Damac drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.20 xG and Damac 0.80 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Riyadh fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.76 / defence 0.82 against Damac attack 0.73 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 45% | Draw 30% | Damac 25%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 52%, Damac 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.15 PPG, Damac 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.