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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Shabab beat Al Riyadh 1-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.26 xG and Al Shabab 1.70 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against Al Shabab attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 29% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 48%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Al Shabab's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.12 PPG, Al Shabab 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights