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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al Shabab (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Riyadh face Al Shabab.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Al Riyadh welcome Al Shabab to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 15 May 2025 at 17:05 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Al Riyadh's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Shabab are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Riyadh, 2 for Al Shabab and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Al Shabab winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Al Riyadh trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Al Shabab trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 55% versus Al Shabab 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 54% | Al Shabab 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.26 xG and Al Shabab 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.777 / defence 1.061 | Al Shabab attack 1.120 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.427. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Al Riyadh games / 65 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 29% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Al Shabab 2.08. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 40% | Al Shabab 100% BTTS from recent games.

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