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Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Riyadh 0-4 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.25 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.77 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Riyadh fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.37 / defence 0.98, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 27% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights