🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Okhdood 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al Okhdood 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.33 xG and Al Okhdood 0.79 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Al Okhdood attack 0.57 / defence 1.17, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 49% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 21%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al Okhdood 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 0.97 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights