Al Riyadh 1-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Riyadh's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Okhdood have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Al Riyadh against 1.00 for Al Okhdood. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Riyadh lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al Okhdood half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 60% versus Al Okhdood 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 54% | Al Okhdood 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.33 xG and Al Okhdood 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.747 / defence 0.993 | Al Okhdood attack 0.569 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.399. Al Riyadh's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Al Riyadh games / 67 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 49% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 21%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Al Okhdood 4.76. Al Riyadh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Riyadh 60% | Al Okhdood 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 49% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Al Riyadh 1.33 / Al Okhdood 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.747 / def 0.993 | Al Okhdood attack 0.569 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Al Okhdood xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood?
Al Riyadh 1 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 49% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood?
Record (5 meetings): Al Riyadh 3W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.57x) against Al Riyadh's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
49%
2.06
30%
3.30
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.12
0.79
Al Okhdood xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
6%
17.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 0.79 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Riyadh come into this having played 67 games, going 16W 17D 34L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.81 PPG from 67 outings (14W 12D 41L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Al Riyadh against 0.81 for Al Okhdood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Riyadh's home form reads 9W 10D 14L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.79 points per game from 33 outings (7W 5D 21L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.90 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Current Season
Al Okhdood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 16W 17D 34L in their last 67 games (0.97 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 14W 12D 41L in their last 67 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.12 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Riyadh
1
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 4, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 52%, Al Okhdood 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al Riyadh) and 42% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 33% of games; Al Okhdood in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 39% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 42% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Okhdood 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al Okhdood 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.33 xG and Al Okhdood 0.79 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.75 / defence 0.99 against Al Okhdood attack 0.57 / defence 1.17, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 49% | Draw 30% | Al Okhdood 21%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al Okhdood 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 0.97 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.