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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh and Al Khaleej Saihat finished level at 1-1 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.31 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.61 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.71 / defence 1.04 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.15 / defence 1.26, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 31% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al Khaleej Saihat 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Riyadh's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 0.93 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights