Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hazm at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hazm make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Riyadh in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 20 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al Riyadh (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Riyadh are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al Riyadh's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al Riyadh 0W, Al-Hazm 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Hazm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 58% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 51% | Al-Hazm 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.48 xG and Al-Hazm 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.843 / defence 1.200 | Al-Hazm attack 0.882 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Data: 45 Al Riyadh games / 46 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Hazm 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Al-Hazm lead the H2H ledger, but Al Riyadh carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Riyadh (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Riyadh 30% | Al-Hazm 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Riyadh 1.48 / Al-Hazm 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.843 / def 1.200 | Al-Hazm attack 0.882 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Al-Hazm xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 34% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm?
Record (4 meetings): Al Riyadh 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.84) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.88x) against Al Riyadh's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
34%
2.94
29%
3.51
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
3.04
1.56
Al-Hazm xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
7%
14.00
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.56 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 10W 12D 23L from 45 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 20L across 45 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Al Riyadh against 1.13 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 8W 5D 9L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 4W 7D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Riyadh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.13 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 10W 12D 23L in their last 45 games (0.93 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.32 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hazm have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
2
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 50%, Al-Hazm 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al Riyadh) and 59% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 27% of games; Al-Hazm in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 59% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 59% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.