Al Riyadh 0-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Al Riyadh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:40 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al Riyadh) versus 1.10 (Al-Ettifaq). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Riyadh register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ettifaq in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Riyadh, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Riyadh trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 57% versus Al-Ettifaq 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 54% | Al-Ettifaq 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.10 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.817 / defence 0.957 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.999 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.261. Data: 44 Al Riyadh games / 44 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ettifaq 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Riyadh 60% | Al-Ettifaq 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 14:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Riyadh 1.10 / Al-Ettifaq 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.817 / def 0.957 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.999 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al-Ettifaq xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 14:40 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Riyadh 0 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 33% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (2 meetings): Al Riyadh 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Riyadh's attack rating (0.82) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.54
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.31
1.21
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.21 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Riyadh's recent record stands at 12W 13D 19L from 44 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 15L across 44 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Riyadh on 1.11 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Riyadh have managed 6W 7D 9L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 8W 7D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.18 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 14D 15L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.14 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Al Riyadh or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Riyadh have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Riyadh
1
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 50%, Al-Ettifaq 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Riyadh) and 32% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 36%; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 36% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 41% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Riyadh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Al Riyadh and Al-Ettifaq drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.10 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.21 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Riyadh fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.82 / defence 0.96 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 38%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al-Ettifaq 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.11 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.