Al-Raed 3-1 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al Orubah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Raed and Al Orubah meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:20 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Raed's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Raed have posted 2W 5D 3L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al Orubah have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Orubah's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Orubah half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 50% versus Al Orubah 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 60% | Al Orubah 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 2.08 xG and Al Orubah 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.913 / defence 1.088 | Al Orubah attack 0.847 / defence 1.584. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.278. Al Orubah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.584 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al-Raed games / 10 Al Orubah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 58% | Draw 21% | Al Orubah 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Al Orubah 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Raed (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Raed 50% | Al Orubah 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 13:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 58% | Draw 21% | Al Orubah 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Raed 2.08 / Al Orubah 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.913 / def 1.088 | Al Orubah attack 0.847 / def 1.584 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al Orubah xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Orubah kicked off at 13:20 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Orubah?
Al-Raed 3 - 1 Al Orubah.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Orubah part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 58% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Orubah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Orubah in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Al Orubah (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Raed vs Al Orubah?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Al Orubah's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Al Orubah's attack (0.85x) against Al-Raed's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
58%
1.72
21%
4.78
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.25
1.18
Al Orubah xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
13%
7.98
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
3%
37.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.18 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Orubah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Raed come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 2D 5L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Orubah sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.00 for Al Orubah. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Raed's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Orubah have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 0.90 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Orubah in 30%.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Orubah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Orubah away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Orubah away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
0
Draws
0
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al Orubah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Al Orubah 0-4 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Orubah?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Raed tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 75%, Al Orubah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Raed and 100% for Al Orubah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Orubah in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Orubah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Raed's games and 50% of Al Orubah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Orubah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Raed's matches and 100% of Al Orubah's.
Do Al-Raed and Al Orubah tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Al Orubah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Orubah 3-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 2.08 xG and Al Orubah 1.18 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Al Orubah attack 0.85 / defence 1.58, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 58% | Draw 21% | Al Orubah 21%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 60%, Al Orubah 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al Orubah's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.10 PPG, Al Orubah 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.