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Al Okhdood cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.36 xG and Al Okhdood 1.48 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Al Okhdood attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 35% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 40%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 55%, Al Okhdood 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Raed's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.04 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights