Al-Raed 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al Khaleej Saihat at Al Raid Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed at Al Raid Club Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 0.40 PPG versus Al Khaleej Saihat's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Raed register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Al Khaleej Saihat have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Al-Raed's 0 victories.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 0–4 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
It is worth noting that Al Khaleej Saihat have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 56% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 56% | Al Khaleej Saihat 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.26 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.749 / defence 1.155 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.986 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.321. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Al-Raed games / 59 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 32% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 60% | Al Khaleej Saihat 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Raid Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 32% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Raed 1.26 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.749 / def 1.155 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.986 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Raed 1 - 2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 32% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 2 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Al Khaleej Saihat's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
32%
3.14
25%
3.96
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.77
1.50
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.50 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed come into this having played 59 games, going 14W 13D 32L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.14 PPG from 59 outings (17W 16D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 0.93 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Raed's home form reads 7W 6D 16L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.28 points per game from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.12 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 14W 13D 32L in their last 59 games (0.93 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 16D 26L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 0.93 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2024, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Raed
2
Draws
4
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 0, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 52%, Al Khaleej Saihat 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Raed) and 48% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al-Raed's games and 59% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Al-Raed's recent games and 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al-Raed 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Raed 1-2 at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.26 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.50 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.75 / defence 1.16 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 32% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 43%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 56%, Al Khaleej Saihat 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 0.93 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.