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Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Al-Raed.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Raed 3-5 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.94 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Al-Raed beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.68 / defence 1.15 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 17% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 57%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Raed's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights