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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Raed face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.

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Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 May 2025, 17:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al-Raed have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Al-Raed.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 2–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Al-Raed trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 56% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Raed 57% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.94 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.679 / defence 1.151 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.219 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.403. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Al-Raed games / 63 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 17% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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