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Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.23 xG and Al-Fayha 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.74 / defence 1.14 against Al-Fayha attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 37%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 55%, Al-Fayha 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Raed's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Raed 0.96 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights