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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 1-1 at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.86 xG and Al-Ettifaq 2.05 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.68 / defence 1.25 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.22 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 15% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 65%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 55%, Al-Ettifaq 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Raed's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights