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Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Raed.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Raed 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.91 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.75 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.75 / defence 1.19 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.12 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 19% | Draw 23% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 57%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 57%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Raed's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights