Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face NEOM.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus NEOM in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Thursday 18 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NEOM's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.50 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Qadisiyah FC, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against NEOM — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
NEOM — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% and NEOM 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | NEOM 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.42 xG and NEOM 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.307 / defence 1.056 | NEOM attack 0.930 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. NEOM's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 43 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 33% | NEOM 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | NEOM 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | NEOM 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% | Draw 33% | NEOM 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.42 / NEOM 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.307 / def 1.056 | NEOM attack 0.930 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
NEOM xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Thursday 18 February 2027 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 35% chance of winning, NEOM a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W | Draws 0 | NEOM 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. NEOM (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.31x the league average against NEOM's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEOM's attack (0.93x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
35%
2.86
33%
3.07
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.78
1.36
NEOM xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.36 for NEOM, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 30W 9D 4L from 43 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEOM, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 16L across 43 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NEOM heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 13W 7D 1L from 21 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEOM's away record stands at 8W 6D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 1.33 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
NEOM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 30W 9D 4L in their last 43 games (2.30 PPG), while NEOM have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or NEOM away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.19 PPG; NEOM away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or NEOM been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, NEOM in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, NEOM have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when NEOM 0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 62%, NEOM 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 38% (NEOM).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; NEOM in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play NEOM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 57% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs NEOM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 38% of NEOM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and NEOM tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, NEOM in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.