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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.77 xG and Al Taawon 0.87 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.63 against Al Taawon attack 1.00 / defence 0.89, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 17%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%, Al Taawon 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Taawon's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights