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Dominant Al Taawon run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Qadisiyah FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.13 xG and Al Taawon 0.82 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al Taawon outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.77 against Al Taawon attack 0.74 / defence 0.87, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 43% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 27%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%, Al Taawon 23%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Taawon's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Al Taawon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights