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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al Riyadh 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Riyadh 1-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.58 xG and Al Riyadh 1.00 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Riyadh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Al Riyadh attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 24%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al Riyadh 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights