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Stalemate at Al-Qadisiyah FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.83 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al Okhdood landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Draw 23% | Al Okhdood 21%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%, Al Okhdood 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights