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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood encounter.

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Analysis

Al Okhdood make the trip to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 15:40 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Okhdood (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al Okhdood and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% versus Al Okhdood 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% | Al Okhdood 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.83 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.143 / defence 0.873 | Al Okhdood attack 0.795 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.483. Data: 39 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 39 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Draw 23% | Al Okhdood 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Al Okhdood 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al Okhdood 30% BTTS from recent games.

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