Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Okhdood make the trip to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to face Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 15:40 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Okhdood (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Al Okhdood's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al Okhdood and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% versus Al Okhdood 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% | Al Okhdood 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.83 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.143 / defence 0.873 | Al Okhdood attack 0.795 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.483. Data: 39 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 39 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Draw 23% | Al Okhdood 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Al Okhdood 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al Okhdood 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 15:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Draw 23% | Al Okhdood 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.83 / Al Okhdood 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.143 / def 0.873 | Al Okhdood attack 0.795 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al Okhdood xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 15:40 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 0 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 56% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Al Okhdood's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Al Okhdood's attack (0.80x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.39
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.87
1.03
Al Okhdood xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
3%
29.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.03 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 39 games, going 25W 6D 8L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.87 PPG from 39 outings (9W 7D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 15W 2D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al Okhdood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 25W 6D 8L in their last 39 games (2.08 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 9W 7D 23L in their last 39 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.47 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
0
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al Okhdood have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Okhdood 2-4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%, Al Okhdood 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 37% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 42% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 37% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Qadisiyah FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Okhdood drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.83 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al Okhdood landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Draw 23% | Al Okhdood 21%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 51%, Al Okhdood 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.